Stan Veuger and a group other scholars at the American Enterprise Institute came out last week with a study that claim that the IRS’s program of scrutinizing conservative organizations applying for 501(c)(4) status played a significant role in muting the Tea Party movement and, thus, the outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election. Well, no $hit!
It is a well-known fact that the Tea Party movement dealt the president his famous “shellacking” (more like a$$-kicking) in the 2010 midterm election. Less well-known is the actual number of votes this new movement delivered — and the continuing effects these votes could have had in 2012 had the movement not been demobilized by the IRS. In a new research paper, Andreas Madestam (from Stockholm University), Daniel Shoag and David Yanagizawa-Drott (both from the Harvard Kennedy School), and I set out to find out how much impact the Tea Party had on voter turnout in the 2010 election. We compared areas with high levels of Tea Party activity to otherwise similar areas with low levels of Tea Party activity, using data from the Census Bureau, the FEC, news reports, and a variety of other sources. We found that the effect was huge: the movement brought the Republican Party some 3 million-6 million additional votes in House races. That is an astonishing boost, given that all Republican House candidates combined received fewer than 45 million votes. It demonstrates conclusively how important the party’s newly energized base was to its landslide victory in those elections, and how worried Democratic strategists must have been about the conservative movement’s momentum.
The Tea Party movement’s huge success was not the result of a few days of work by an elected official or two, but involved activists all over the country who spent the year and a half leading up to the midterm elections volunteering, organizing, donating, and rallying. Much of these grassroots activities were centered around 501(c)4s, which according to our research were an important component of the Tea Party movement and its rise.
The bottom line is that the Tea Party movement, when properly activated, can generate a huge number of votes-more votes in 2010, in fact, than the vote advantage Obama held over Romney in 2012. The data show that had the Tea Party groups continued to grow at the pace seen in 2009 and 2010, and had their effect on the 2012 vote been similar to that seen in 2010, they would have brought the Republican Party as many as 5 – 8.5 million votes compared to Obama’s victory margin of 5 million. Holy Catfish! I wonder what Obama promised Lois Lerner to get her to ‘take one for the team’? You know damn well that he’s going to protect her to the end! This is the brand of politics that we have come to in the US. I don’t know about you, but the Villainous VooDoo is sick of smelling the $hit Obama keeps shoveling…
SOURCE – American Enterprise Institute